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Wednesday preview: Eurozone inflation, UK and US PMI surveys

By Oliver Haill

Date: Tuesday 03 Apr 2018

LONDON (ShareCast) - (ShareCast News) - With little UK company news expected on Wednesday there's just economic data to keep London investors interested.
A UK construction purchasing managers' index survey is due at 09p BST, with the market expecting a cooling off to 50.8 for March from 51.4 the previous month.

More weighty European data could keep currency traders interested, with eurozone consumer price inflation and unemployment numbers due at 1000 BST.

In Italy, government consultations begin that are thought likely to last several weeks.

Said Barclays: "We expect a mixed government comprising both traditional and anti-establishment parties. We retain the view that an outright agreement between M5S and Lega remains less likely, at this stage, as it would not be in the interest of the latter, in our view."

Looking at eurozone CPI, the consensus forecast is for a pick-up to 1.4% for March from 1.1% in February, with core prices rising 1.1% after the 1.0% gain a month ago.

The unemployment rate for February is forecast to ease off to 8.5% from 8.6%.

RBC Capital Markets said food and services inflation are likely to be the driver, having fallen in March last year, with an earlier Easter week this year that is likely to push inflation up in the recreation and culture category versus the same month a year ago.

"However, any such effect is likely to prove only temporary, and despite rising slightly in recent months, it remains difficult to see any significant acceleration in core inflation in the near term, especially as euro area wage growth remains muted."

Alongside the March inflation release, unemployment data for February will also include data on individual euro area member states that could see a significant contribution from France to overall lower euro area unemployment.

"In particular, we should see the unemployment rate there dip below 9% this month, the first time it would be below that mark in close to nine years," RBC said.

There's no top-tier US data, but investors will be keeping an eye on services PMI that is expected to strengthen modestly from the prior month's 54.1, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is seen softening from the previous month's 59.5.

Wednesday April 04


Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Composite (US) (15:45)
PMI Services (US) (15:45)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (09:00)


PMI Construction (09:30)


Concurrent Technologies, Maxcyte (DI), Next Fifteen Communications


Renewi, Topps Tiles


Apax Global Alpha Limited , Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, St. Modwen Properties


Ashmore Group, Genus, Pennon Group, WYG